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- The optimal number of grains that should be dated of a detrital
provenance sample can be looked up from Table 1, Figure 3,
or the web-form [9]. To be 95% certain that no fraction
0.05 of the population was missed, 117 grains should be dated.
This is a fairly large number, often too high perhaps for analytical
methods such as fission-track, (U-Th)/He, or TIMS. 117 measurements
may be more readily achievable with the ion-microprobe (e.g.
[11]) or laser ablation ICP-MS
(e.g. [13]).
- If there exists some prior knowledge about the population that
indicates it is not uniformly distributed, a risk can be taken to date
fewer that the optimal number of grains, by using Figure 5.
To be 95% certain that no fraction f
0.05 was missed, it is
recommended that this number be no less than 95. However, dating
fewer grains limits the possibility to rigorously calculate and report
p and f.
- It is definitely not the purpose of this paper to suggest that
studies reporting fewer than 117 single-grain measurements would be
scientifically wrong. The purpose of some provenance studies may be
to prove the presence of one or more specific age fractions in a
detrital population. Once these fractions have been found, there is
no reason to date more grains. It is only when provenance studies
discuss the absence of certain age fractions that counting
statistics come into play. Even then, it may not be possible to date
as many as 117 grains for technical, financial or other reasons. If
fewer than 117 grains were dated per sample, or when age-histograms
must be interpreted from published studies that use fewer than the
optimal number of grains, the actual p
and f values that
result from using the available number of grain ages should be
reported. For example: if only 60 grains were dated, it is sufficient
to report that the maximum probability of missing at least one
fraction greater than 0.05 is p
=64%, or that there is
95% confidence that no fraction f
0.085 was missed. Note
that the latter definitely sounds better than the former. Such
information can be obtained from Equation 4, Figure
3, Table 2, or the web-form [9]. In theory, an
alternative solution to changing p and f would be to reduce the number
of bins of the age histogram to M
, according to Table 2 or the
web-form [9]. However, M
is typically a low number
which would over-smooth the histogram.
Next: Appendix A: derivation of
Up: How many grains are
Previous: Case studies of real
Pieter Vermeesch
2004-05-19